2 May 2014

Extremists in northern Nigeria have kidnapped 276 girls from local schools, and there are reports that some of the girls as being sold as brides.  The extremists, who are identified with the Muslim group, Boko Haram, are part of a coordinated effort to gain greater autonomy from the central government of Nigeria.  The government, led by President Goodluck Jonathan, has proven to be impotent in the face of the attacks, and there is widespread dismay at the government’s inability to rescue  the girls.

Anatole Kaletsky has written a fascinating essay on why the sanctions against Russia are unlikely to work.  In the essay, however, he outlines certain measures, such as working on a new constitution for Ukraine prior to the use of sanctions, might have worked better.  In some sense, Kalestsky is arguing that the West should not have been so rigid about Ukrainian sovereignty at the beginning of the crisis.  Less adherence to the rules of world order may in fact make a more peaceful world.  On the other hand, if sovereignty is always contestable, then there are a lot more fights to choose from.  The idea is worth considering.

There is a growing sense in the electronic media that Russian forces will make a move in eastern Ukraine this weekend.  I have no idea whether this is likely, but the focus of a lot of the reporting is on the strategic significance of certain areas.  The Royal United Service Institute of Great Britain published an analysis of the strategic significance of the area of Slavyansk, an otherwise non-descript region.   Apparently, there are 5 million Kalashnikov rifles stored there by the Ukrainian government–the Russians are worried that Ukrainian nationalists might seize to wage a guerrilla war against their forces.  And the Washington Post published this graphic showing the most recent movement of troops by both sides.